Fraser Downs Parimutuel

Track Condition:

Essentially two seconds slow. Surface went through three disticnt phases over the 15 races.
Brilliant sunshine with sharp shadows ( see excuse for breakers in races # 1& #2 below ).
RH 90% . Fog & Frost last night and this A.M.

The air is severely clear. The view on the right is from the roof top, finish line Camera. The lights in mid-ground are fromGrouse Mountain Ski resort, 24 miles to the NNW . 15 miles further in the back-ground are the twin peaks known as ” The Lions” ( 5400′).

Race #1, CLM_7K,NW8K_LT.
HEZADILLY, ( Treen/Treen) was 3rd choice in the program but bet down as the favorite. Appeared to be an EZ winner, 2.5 lengths ahead at stretch call. But half way down the lane he broke stride. My theory is that while he was in the deep shadow of the Granstand, he ran into a shaft of sunlight streaming down through the grandstand and that spooked him enough to jump.  See image below left. (watch replay)

Left , HEZADILLY, spooked by sun light   ~ ~    Right , CIGAR HALL, spooked by shadow before him.

Race #2, NW6K_L6, AE, NW7R
CIGAR HALL,  led to the half mile pole where he jumped. My theory is that he turned into his own shadow and that spooked him. The sun was in the South. Before the turn, he was travelling East and his shadow was directly to his left. Through the first turn, as he turned North, his shadow began to move in front of him. Half way through that turn (where he jumped) his shadow was directly in-front and beneath him. See image above right. (watch the replay)

Three fastest races today:
All three races went in 1:55.4, but each had a different way of getting there.

~  ~  ~  all times in the table above and discussion below are in tenths, not fifths, of a second ~  ~  ~  ~

Race #5, BC Sales Stake for 3yr C&G:
An impressive w/w romp by STOP CALLING ( Anderson/JJJ/ Mccarthy ).  The chart shows him drawing away by 4 lengths in the stretch. In fact, the others just couldn’t keep-up. His 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractions were all the same at 29 flat. The race favorite finished 2nd by 6 lengths,

Race #9, CLM_20K:
RED STAR VOLCANO, (Treen/Treen) as the favorite, on top to the half in what seemed like a “well rated mile”. Suddenly, he ignited down the BS in a 27.4 Q3.  This was 2.6 seconds faster than Q2 and the fastest Q3 of the day, by far. The rest of the field faded behind him …. except for AVALON PROMISE ( K. Clark/ K.Clark) who had hitched up for a perfect pocket trip. Q4 decellerated by 2.6 seconds to 30 flat, with last wobbly strides shortening at the wire.  AVALON capitalized on the trip, and obviously likes the tropical BC weather, he paid $67 to win.

Race #10, Open Pace:
JUST PLUG IT IN, ( Hensley/JJJ/Upal ). Did a gentlemanly shuffle to retake the early lead and went W/W in senseable fractions. The pace profile in races # 5 & #10 look very similar and seemed optimal for the existing track conditions.

SHOTS HAPPEN ( pick your excuses )

Driver / Trainer Stats last 6 race days, 2 weekends ( click to enlarge ).

On Sunday Dec 13, Ed Hensley win six races in 11 starts.  See 5th win, above - right.
His 6th win in Race #9 was a classic demo of his winning  style. In this case, following the favorite into the stretch run. See image below.

Something very drastic has happened in Serge Masse’s World. He has gone from First to Worst.
Mike Hennessy launches with everything, is a factor in every race, and is 2nd or 3rd in 25%  of starts.
The Treen Machine  is all Bizzness. Ditto for Burke / Merschback.  See Flashiest Wins below.

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Over this weekend, Three different types of track conditions.

Friday Dec 11
Cold & dry artic air , Temps 2 degrees below freezing, Relative Humidity 30% , dusty, (Variant -3/5th).

Saturday Dec 12
Cold & humid, temps 1 degree below freezing, Relative Humidity 80%, damp powder,  (Variant -4/5th).

Sunday  Dec 13
Cold & snow showers, temps 1 degree blow freezing, Relativity Humidity 80%, (Variant -9/5th).
The “mile”  covered extra ground with drivers steering wide off the cones. Rolling resistance must have been a factor as the “harrow” mixed the falling snow with the track’s damp powder. Winds light from ENE.

Technical difficulties in Sundays Race #3. The half mile time was displayed as 54.3. I think this caused confusion on the track and drivers probably reacted by slowing the 3rd quarter way down which made for a very slow mile , 2:05.1. The Judges reacted by declaring the track “Snowy” and final times being “Open” ( not penalizing for exessively slow times).  I reckon the variant was 9/5ths slow, improving slightly as snow showers abated later in the day.

Race #3  individual quarterly times (derived with video editing software) were 30.0 _30.3_33.0_31.3. This was the only race where Q4 was faster than Q3.

( Meanwhile:  Edmonton Alberta airport had record breaking low Temps on Sunday ( -46c)
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The flashiest wins of the weekend

* Dec 11, R#5, Clm 20K, RED STAR TOMAHAWK. Essentially W/W , improved LT mark by 3 seconds.
27  57.4  85.2  113.4 ( times in seconds and tenths ) Burke/ Merschback.

* Dec 12,  R#9, Clm 8K, SHOMKIN SHANNON A, W/W, improved LT mark by 1 second.
27  56.2  85.2  113.6 ( running times in seconds and tenths ). Gaining 5 lengths in the stretch.

First start under the Treen banner, and now without Lasix. The Treen Machine is 5 for 8 over the last two weekends and came second today at odds of 98 to 1 in  race #10 , 2yr Fillies Stake Race.

These performances can be put in perspective by looking at * Dec 11th, Open Pace fractions.
27.6  56.4  85  113.0 ( running times in seconds and tenths )

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Continuing Driving Feud

Below Left. Hennessy & Masse  engaged in MAD ( mutually assured destruction ) in Dec 13, Race #7.
These two $3000 claimers went the fastest Q1 of the day ( 27.2)  See replay , race #7
See this Blog’s description of the pair’s previous shenanigans.

Above Right: J. Marino (#9), denies hole, enticing another M. Hennessy / S.  Masse pissing contest in Dec 13, Race #11. See Replay.  But Hennessy (#3, parked-out) thoughtfully declined and they went #1 - #9 around the track, as divined by the $13 price in exacta matrix.  See below.

NOV 29 , Sunday.

Track condition & Weather:
A fine racing weather day compared to recent stormy days.
A balanced mix of favorites & shots

Driver Stats for the last six racing days, 67 races.  ( not counting non-betting races )

Track Condition:
Damp packed powder/crushed stone. Officially Variant -1 second , GOOD. That seemed accurate especially given tonights “coldest” temperatures of the 2009 season that ranged from +2c to -1c.( First frost of the Fall ).

Political Economy.
This week ( 9-15 NOV ) had four racing days so many “got-in” to race tonight. Fields were short. Driving tactics, for the most part, was sane. Therefore predictability was good.

Predictability:
The exotic wager pay-offs told the story. It’s instructive to explore the higher paying races.

Race # 2, Clm 7K, NW $8000 LT:

SURREY GIRL , with “M” driving was dropping from straight NW2 ( purse 4700 ) into this flaky class ( purse $2900 )  and was bet down to ( only ) even money in this short field of 6.  She came first-out into the far turn after a ground saving trip but had nothing. Q1 in 28 was a touch fast for this bunch , Q2 slowed by 3.2 seconds to 30.1,  PSYMADRE  ( D. Hudon), second Fav at 1.75 came from dead last , 3w down the BS & far turn. PRAIRIEWYND SPRING ( J. Hudon)  showed up second as the races “long-shot”.

Race #6, NW $6100 L6:

STORYEUM  bet down to 1.2 in a short field of 6, went to fast for existing conditions (26.4_56_1:24.2_1:53.8).  They were bet 3-1-6 and that’s how they went around the track until the stretch run. From that point to the wire the order reversed to 6-1-3.

Race # 7, clm4k, NW$1400 L5, F&M:

The two co-favorites eliminated each other in an incident, hence the largest exacta / triactor of the night.

Race #9, NW2 F&M:
A replay worth watching for many angles.

MY BEST OPTION, at odds of 8 to 1, left large from PP #6 and got the lead in 28.3. AUSTINSFIRSTPEACE pulled first out early in front of the GS  because he may have sensed a slowing Q2 , but the leader would not relinquish ( see image, right).  So those two engaged in M.A.D. ( mutually assured destruction ) around the CHT & BS.  GENUINE PROMISE  , bet as the FAV, flashed a brilliant 28 second Q3 ( adjusted for 5 lengths gained ) to passed the destructed  duo and lead at the stretch call but succumbed in the lane to  TAHUYA RUB A DUB & MAKE ME LATE who both had beneficial ground saving trips.

Watch MAKE ME LATE  in the replay. Into the BS he appeared to commit to the rail rather than going wide; That choice may have cost him lengths. I think he settled for a distant second when it became apparent the ist place was not within reach.

Race #10 Clm 4K:

Another pissing contest ( Too Fast Early ) . This time between “M” aboard his dropping RODEO KING and the favorite RS SPECIAL( Marino/Isbister);  both went M.A.D. The winner MY ALIBI was  sixth by 7 lengths at Q1. ( see image “P” ing  part II, right. )