Predictability in most races has been pretty high.
During the first weekend, in two consecutive races, the program consensus picked the Superfecta.
In an 8 horse race there are 8X7X6X5 = 1680 possible outcomes. Boxing the program’s 4 consensus covers only 24 ( 4×3x2×1 = 24 ) of those permutations. 24/1680 =  odds of 70 to 1. Try doing that with four picks in a 9 horse race and its 24/3024, or 126 to 1 odds. Not too shabby !

Then, on 10_JAN_2010, Sunday afternoon’s outcomes blew-up the predictability parade, so what’s up with the longshots?
~ ~ ~ ~  Where there’s confusion, there is money to be made. ~ ~ ~ ~

Confusion factors

• Purses have changed

So using purse value as measure/compare recent “class” levels doesn’t work

• Weather & Surface

True track “Variants” have been all over the map and frequently change during the card.
“The Thaw” and the subsequent track surface manipulations have caused  ”biases” which make evaluating performances difficult.

• Cloaked past-performance lines.

In races with large margins of victory (i.e. Ed Hensley)  many of the also-rans show what looks like dismal race lines. Sixth by 7 lengths really isn’t a bad finish in a race where a solid choice finished second, 6 lengths behind the winner.

• Skillfull drivers

Talented/Alert drivers are exploiting opportunities as they occur and  are getting “all they can”.
It would be fun doing video high-lites of these ” Slick-Steers”

• Race elligibilities

Flexible race conditions are bringing together some “interesting” mixes.

Accompanying music

Additional accompanying music

Gallery, pics of crispie, tightie-whities.

You could say the Knicker-Bomber had balls.

Track Conditions:
Very Similar to yesterday  Changed during the day as frosty surface melted in brilliant sun, and later got chewed up with use. There were Also differences between surface in the cold dark shadow of the grandstand to the bright-sunny warm ( and icky) backstretch. Fenders and face guards were on.  I reckon the variant started at -9/5ths , worsened to about -13/5ths, and then improved slightly in last 2 races ( after sundown ).

Driving tactics:
Also changed as the day progressed. In the first several races, on the still relatively dry surface, it was an all or nothing attempt for the lead before the half. There were a couple of three wide moves just after Q1. after the 5th race, when the drivers & start car were getting covered with atomized liquid limestone, the madness toned down.

MYSTIC MAIDEN: ( Becoming a Legend )
In an Stake for 2yr old fillies, smoked them by 8 lengths, in the fastest time of the day 1:57. The 2yr old Colts went in 1:58.3. these  Times  recored 90 minutes before solar noon when the track becoming icky. The CLM20K F&M in race #11 went in 1:59.1

Suprises

RACE #4, CLM8K, NW18KLT
HAVE YOU BEEN TOLD ( Therres/Therres)From PP #6, took back sitting 7/8th at Q1. Made a remarkable 3w brush move in the shadow of the grandstand and made the lead by the half pole. went on to win by 6 lengths to pay $15.75. Looks like Mr. T was constructive during the break.

RACE #5 CLM8K,NW25K
RONNY WOO WOO. ( Masse/Urqhart) Picked fourth in the program consensus, went off as the tepid Fav at odd of 2.6.. From pp  # 5 ( a tough post, see post position stats below) went W/W in a nicely rated mile. The noteworthy thing is that RONNY has never led at any call in a  parimutuel race in his last 14 starts, going back to late May.

RACE #6, CLM4K, ABBETROSS A CLAIMING SERIES
HEWITT A.The Anderson’s brought the 14 yr old  up from CalX to compete in this Series honoring older claiming horse. GOOD IDEA !. From PP#4, taken back to 6/7th at Q1. Took a 2nd over trip to win by 4 lengths at odds of 4.45

RACE #7, CLM4K, ABBETROSS A CLAIMING SERIES ( fLASHIEST WIN OF THE DAY )
CUSTOM CRAFTED: Purchased , by Hensley & C. Uppal after his last start on Dec 13. Hensley reigning & training. First time lasix. Left and was parked good from PP#7 in 29.3. He shoulda been cooked, but endured with a remarkable performance, to win by 8 lengths. Rather than decellerating, Q2 went 1 fifth faster, Q3went 3/5ths faster to record the fast Q3 of the day at 28.4.  Q4 decellerated by 6/5ths as the field faded 5 additional lengths behind  the leader. In Race #14 Eddie “H”, board FAST CHANGE ART, for owner C. Uppal, performed another stunner. From5th by six lengths at Q1, First out in front of the GS and on to win by >4 lengths. With that victory he achieved a “Grand Salami”. Come a distant, staggering 2nd was another Californian at 50 to 1 odds.

RACE #11, CLM20K,F&M, with AEs
ROSSRIDGE TRISTAR, ( Treen/ Jiwan) . Overcame several obstacles to win paying $27.
From PP #6, an incident sent her back to 7th by 8 lengths. There she sat as the leader slowed Q2 down by 12/ 5ths. At 31 seconds it tied the slowest Q2 of the day. She advanced 4 lengths In the outer flow down the backstretch, Picked -up another length  going 4 wide the entire last turn, and was going away 3 lengths at the wire. REMARKABLE.
Please see this blogs earlier comments about this race.

Postscript 03_JAN_09:
In her next start  she beat the heavy favorite (odds = 0.45) in the F&M Open
see replay

Things are looking Rosy.
Handle over the 28 race, two day weekend was over $500k.
Purses ( including $100k paid in 4 stake races ) were $247k.
Purses are up substantially, across the board. Let the Good-Times roll !

Track Condition:

Essentially two seconds slow. Surface went through three disticnt phases over the 15 races.
Brilliant sunshine with sharp shadows ( see excuse for breakers in races # 1& #2 below ).
RH 90% . Fog & Frost last night and this A.M.

The air is severely clear. The view on the right is from the roof top, finish line Camera. The lights in mid-ground are fromGrouse Mountain Ski resort, 24 miles to the NNW . 15 miles further in the back-ground are the twin peaks known as ” The Lions” ( 5400′).

Race #1, CLM_7K,NW8K_LT.
HEZADILLY, ( Treen/Treen) was 3rd choice in the program but bet down as the favorite. Appeared to be an EZ winner, 2.5 lengths ahead at stretch call. But half way down the lane he broke stride. My theory is that while he was in the deep shadow of the Granstand, he ran into a shaft of sunlight streaming down through the grandstand and that spooked him enough to jump.  See image below left. (watch replay)

Left , HEZADILLY, spooked by sun light   ~ ~    Right , CIGAR HALL, spooked by shadow before him.

Race #2, NW6K_L6, AE, NW7R
CIGAR HALL,  led to the half mile pole where he jumped. My theory is that he turned into his own shadow and that spooked him. The sun was in the South. Before the turn, he was travelling East and his shadow was directly to his left. Through the first turn, as he turned North, his shadow began to move in front of him. Half way through that turn (where he jumped) his shadow was directly in-front and beneath him. See image above right. (watch the replay)

Three fastest races today:
All three races went in 1:55.4, but each had a different way of getting there.

~  ~  ~  all times in the table above and discussion below are in tenths, not fifths, of a second ~  ~  ~  ~

Race #5, BC Sales Stake for 3yr C&G:
An impressive w/w romp by STOP CALLING ( Anderson/JJJ/ Mccarthy ).  The chart shows him drawing away by 4 lengths in the stretch. In fact, the others just couldn’t keep-up. His 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractions were all the same at 29 flat. The race favorite finished 2nd by 6 lengths,

Race #9, CLM_20K:
RED STAR VOLCANO, (Treen/Treen) as the favorite, on top to the half in what seemed like a “well rated mile”. Suddenly, he ignited down the BS in a 27.4 Q3.  This was 2.6 seconds faster than Q2 and the fastest Q3 of the day, by far. The rest of the field faded behind him …. except for AVALON PROMISE ( K. Clark/ K.Clark) who had hitched up for a perfect pocket trip. Q4 decellerated by 2.6 seconds to 30 flat, with last wobbly strides shortening at the wire.  AVALON capitalized on the trip, and obviously likes the tropical BC weather, he paid $67 to win.

Race #10, Open Pace:
JUST PLUG IT IN, ( Hensley/JJJ/Upal ). Did a gentlemanly shuffle to retake the early lead and went W/W in senseable fractions. The pace profile in races # 5 & #10 look very similar and seemed optimal for the existing track conditions.

SHOTS HAPPEN ( pick your excuses )

.Political Economy:
Last weekend’s three days of racing were cancelled. Who’s been naughty & Who’s been nice, during lull?
31 races, including three non betting Stake events,  are packed into the  Sat - Sun Holiday weekend.
345 were entered to race, only 254 were drawn. Fields are full. Pitter-Patter, lets get at-her !

Drivers:
Keith Clark is back from the Gulag, and the stock he schleped over the snowy mountain are not just pets.  Will he disturb Ed Hensley’s “berry patch”. Eddie “H” is scheduled  to perform his magic in 28 of the 31 races. The Gypsy Lady, trainer from Manitoba is back too.

Sunday Race #11, Fillies & Mares , $20,000 claiming with also eligibles:
One of the many interesting events cast for this weekend. Infinite possible outcomes.
Should be an entertaining experiment with a colourful cast of unpredictable characters.
In here, patron JellyBean Jiwan is sponsoring  the Treen Machine. Both entities have had some success with the ladies.

(Postscript,  Sunday Dec 27th:)
Indeed, the JellyBean’s mare won paying $27. Shots came-in behind and the TRI paid $543  for 6/5/all, no winning ticket with the correct three finishers. The SuperFecta  paid on 6/5/all/all. And the late Win4 paid on 3 out-of 4. ………. Oh! The Gypsy Lady won too.

see results for race #11

“We need this money,” council member Tricia L. Johnson (R-Davidsonville) told a packed council chamber as she urged her colleagues to pass “a proposal right in front of us.” Within a few years, the mall casino could generate more than $500 million a year, about half of which would be earmarked for state education programs, according to consultants hired by the state. The county would also get a cut of the proceeds.

Last year, a statewide ballot issue authorizing the five slots sites passed with the support of 59 percent of Anne Arundel voters. But anti-slots activists said that most people assumed at the time that slots would go to Laurel Park racetrack, not the mall. Cordish ( county ) officials have said that a casino at the mall, which draws about 14 million people a year, would be far more lucrative than one at the racetrack. “>

See complete story

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Also read Andy Beyer’s comment on the Malls of Maryland

Also see  this blog’s October 20th entry titled “Slot Squeeze tightens at FRD”

“Last month, Ms. Miller saw a sale catalog that included the name of Keystone Wallis, a 23-year-old “barren mare.” Because the old mare’s racing and breeding days are over, “I knew no one would want her but the killers,” Ms. Miller said in a telephone interview. “I just had to buy her.”
Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09353/1022003-62.stm#ixzz0aOWmbBJh

~ ~ ~  FRD Patrons who purchase “Second Chance” draw tickets also help to SAVE HORSES. ~ ~ ~~

Meanwhile -  Northfield Park, in suburban Cleveland Ohio, makes for an interesting contrast.
Five cards a week,  around a highly banked - 225 foot radius - bullring. 54% of the race is on a turn.
Note the track’s “de-facto” passing lane based on the  transition from last turn - to stretch run.

Purses are 40% less than FRD, handle is 600% more than FRD and NO life support SLOTS ! ! ! !  … Now, who in-the-hell is that possible ? ( nudge-nudge, wink-wink ) !

Northfield Ohio, 13 miles S. of Cleveland, Half mile track

Most entertaining is their continuing Saga of  ”Second Right There” … presented under their video news section and also on YouTube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7-OIVDEDDI&feature=player_embedded#

" Now, that seems fair ! "

A Typical  annual event after a period of below freezing temps, the track “Thaws-out” in a messy discontinuous manner. See this Blogs earlier entry about winter racing at FRD, and last season’s THAW . Racing is scheduled to resume on December 26th, “Boxing Day”, 1:15PM . See press Release.

MERRY CHRISTMAS

(Standing L. to R.) Doug Chappell, Ed  (Eddie “H”) Hensley, Santa himself, Dave Hudon, Tim (DownTown) Brown, Jim (CoCo) Burke and Director of Racing Jackson ( WTF) Wittup
(Front Row L. to R.) Jim ( MarbleHead) Marino, Travis Tracey, Scott (D-White) Knight and John Abbott.

On Sunday Dec 13, Ed Hensley win six races in 11 starts.  See 5th win, above - right.
His 6th win in Race #9 was a classic demo of his winning  style. In this case, following the favorite into the stretch run. See image below.

Something very drastic has happened in Serge Masse’s World. He has gone from First to Worst.
Mike Hennessy launches with everything, is a factor in every race, and is 2nd or 3rd in 25%  of starts.
The Treen Machine  is all Bizzness. Ditto for Burke / Merschback.  See Flashiest Wins below.

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Over this weekend, Three different types of track conditions.

Friday Dec 11
Cold & dry artic air , Temps 2 degrees below freezing, Relative Humidity 30% , dusty, (Variant -3/5th).

Saturday Dec 12
Cold & humid, temps 1 degree below freezing, Relative Humidity 80%, damp powder,  (Variant -4/5th).

Sunday  Dec 13
Cold & snow showers, temps 1 degree blow freezing, Relativity Humidity 80%, (Variant -9/5th).
The “mile”  covered extra ground with drivers steering wide off the cones. Rolling resistance must have been a factor as the “harrow” mixed the falling snow with the track’s damp powder. Winds light from ENE.

Technical difficulties in Sundays Race #3. The half mile time was displayed as 54.3. I think this caused confusion on the track and drivers probably reacted by slowing the 3rd quarter way down which made for a very slow mile , 2:05.1. The Judges reacted by declaring the track “Snowy” and final times being “Open” ( not penalizing for exessively slow times).  I reckon the variant was 9/5ths slow, improving slightly as snow showers abated later in the day.

Race #3  individual quarterly times (derived with video editing software) were 30.0 _30.3_33.0_31.3. This was the only race where Q4 was faster than Q3.

( Meanwhile:  Edmonton Alberta airport had record breaking low Temps on Sunday ( -46c)
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The flashiest wins of the weekend

* Dec 11, R#5, Clm 20K, RED STAR TOMAHAWK. Essentially W/W , improved LT mark by 3 seconds.
27  57.4  85.2  113.4 ( times in seconds and tenths ) Burke/ Merschback.

* Dec 12,  R#9, Clm 8K, SHOMKIN SHANNON A, W/W, improved LT mark by 1 second.
27  56.2  85.2  113.6 ( running times in seconds and tenths ). Gaining 5 lengths in the stretch.

First start under the Treen banner, and now without Lasix. The Treen Machine is 5 for 8 over the last two weekends and came second today at odds of 98 to 1 in  race #10 , 2yr Fillies Stake Race.

These performances can be put in perspective by looking at * Dec 11th, Open Pace fractions.
27.6  56.4  85  113.0 ( running times in seconds and tenths )

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Continuing Driving Feud

Below Left. Hennessy & Masse  engaged in MAD ( mutually assured destruction ) in Dec 13, Race #7.
These two $3000 claimers went the fastest Q1 of the day ( 27.2)  See replay , race #7
See this Blog’s description of the pair’s previous shenanigans.

Above Right: J. Marino (#9), denies hole, enticing another M. Hennessy / S.  Masse pissing contest in Dec 13, Race #11. See Replay.  But Hennessy (#3, parked-out) thoughtfully declined and they went #1 - #9 around the track, as divined by the $13 price in exacta matrix.  See below.